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In 1903, the Wright brothers found an airplane.
It's hard to imagine that today, there will be
more than 500,000 people travel in the air at any time.
In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto discovered bitcoin and blockchain.
For the first time in history, his invention allowed
to send money around the world without a bank,
government, or other intermediaries.
Satoshi is a mystery character and the same as the Wright brothers
he solves an unsolved problem.
Every time this happens, it inspires extraordinary innovation.
The blockchain concept isn't too intuitive but still, many believers are gamechanger.
Despite a mysterious start,
blockchain might be our time plane.
Chapter 1: First Contact with Blockchain
I found out about the first blockchain
because most people at that time used bitcoin.
Personally, at first I thought bitcoin was a bad idea.
I taught at Stanford in 2010
and the teaching assistant for the class sent me an article.
He said "There is something very cool, this is an open source."
I remember thinking "Open source money, isn't that cool
but it might never work."
I do what most people do at the first time
they are exposed to bitcoin. I ignore it.
I think this is ridiculous Internet money
You can mine it, it's like a golden goose.
It takes about a year to really explore technology again.
In 2012 I did what I told most people to do today:
Turn off your phone, lock your door, and learn this technology for a day.
That's the best advice I can give.
I am on leave from work.
I decide to take a year off, live on
savings and find out what I want to do.
That's where I found this little orange icon with B in the middle
and say, "What's this weird?"
I started looking... Bitcoin... interesting.
That's around 2012/2013
and I have not left this space since.
I go down the blockchain rabbit hole if you want
and I was very surprised
and have no reason to crawl back
and find other technologies.
There is a point where you can barely stop.
It becomes very interesting and you are so fascinated by it
and you just want to learn more.
Even today, there are new developments
and new ways to solve problems, new approaches
and very pleasant to be in this world.
It feels very interesting to be involved in blockchain.
It feels like we are at the forefront of something
which at least has the potential to change
our interactions between each other
between companies, the underlying infrastructure
from both the private sector but also from the government.
For me part of the appeal is that
we don't know exactly what this thing is
however, there are still many people gathered around it.
I consider it to be a space rock that falls on earth.
You will have lots of people gathered
and they all point and ask, "What is this thing?"
You don't really know but it's still very interesting.
Chapter 2: Blockchain Technology
For me, blockchain has two main technical ingredients.
One of the ingredients is cryptography.
When I say cryptography, I really mean asymmetric cryptography.
Other materials are what are called distributed systems.
These are two main things.
If you understand them, you understand all that technical details of blockchain or bitcoin.
You have the ability to make indelible notes.
You have the ability to transfer the value of
by making an update on that note.
And you have the ability to automate updates to recordings
through things called smart contracts.
That means the potential that you can change
financial service structure.
Today there are various institutions
that exists to maintain the record set.
To be a "trusted third party" in industrial terms.
The role has the potential to be reshaped fundamentally.
Blockchain is a network.
The network we see today
Alibaba, AirBnB, Uber...
they are interesting networks but they are centralized.
Here, you will have a decentralized network
who works more as a cooperative.
I think some challenges will occur
what is the economy of the network,
what is the economy of a particular blockchain
versus discussion today which is all about technology.
I think tomorrow's discussion will be around
how you build network effects from this new rail.
What really interests me is that
it is a grassroots movement from the technology sector.
Not an established business movement
try to find a new selling point.
This is really a bottom-up movement from us geeks.
That's one of the most amazing things in science
that happened in the last 100 years
that this is actually possible.
You can digitally sign transactions or other types of information
so you can prove that you actually signed this.
Much safer than this
curved and stretched signatures that we use every day.
That might replace those things immediately.
Chapter 3: Effect of Blockchain
We spent two years trying to understand this space
and what that means.
We found that meant more than just
other digital currencies.
Because blockchain becomes more influential in our thinking
we began to realize that it was a big change
how the internet can be used
to create a new value form
and how it can be used to give voting rights
and including people in global finance.
We have had the Internet for years now and on the Internet, still no one knows
whether you are a dog or not.
Identity fraud is completely out of control.
It is an area where we need new thinking
is in the identity space.
Maybe technology brings something new into that space.
And we need it quickly because
we haven't fixed the identity problem for people
but we will enter ten billion, trillion, gazillion
things on the Internet.
We can have a trust relationship
without actually ever meeting each other
or have done business at all with each other.
I think it's fundamental.
Security is another thing.
Blockchain is a military level cryptology
and they have never cracked.
When you hear about hackers stealing bitcoin
they don't steal from the blockchain itself.
They steal at the entry point
on wallet or browser level
where they intercept messages.
But blockchain itself is very safe.
Internet of Things might become
the best test case for many blockchain technologies.
Because if we will have millions or billions or trillions
devices that support the Internet do everything
from taking us around to manage our affairs
to monitor our health, they need a way
move and save and manage values and
data that has value in a safe and personal way.
At the moment we don't have it.
I am concerned about the existence of data and how to
flows in and through devices connected to the Internet.
I think with value platforms like blockchain
we can at least overcome some of these problems and
maybe even create new opportunities.
Chapter 4: New Business Opportunities
We can't sit in the office and study
of course we do that too
but we have to go out and participate
throughout this blockchain community.
Honestly, what's new for me especially regarding younger people in my team
is how enthusiastic they are about that.
If there is a hackathon, for example
they never came to me and asked if
they can go there and get money for that
they just leave. They are very interested.
They just go and participate and share
what they learned, and we discussed further.
This is really a new way, also for us
to deal with new technology.
We are in the middle, no one tells us what to do.
This is really what we together shape what we stand for in the end for blockchain.
We need more technology.
We need to have awareness
how something is programmed
so we can check whether the program is correct.
This might be the ability we have
but not as needed in the future.
In the future, you must always have it
technology links to various things so you can understand them.
Otherwise, you always need your IT person sitting next to you
helps you understand the problem.
This is not something that will have an impact on one of the two industries
it will affect every industry
the same way internal combustion engines
affects almost every industry
or the internet affects almost every industry
or steam engine creates a new industry.
This is one of the big generation technology shifts which requires an integrated and focused response.
If not, you will miss the boat.
We are all, also in the financial services industry
try to recognize that we don't have to be defensive but we prefer to embrace not only this technology
but this enabler brings us to access
a market that is very underutilized or undiscovered
that we must do business with the eye-to-eye level.
We speak with all senior executives in financial services
and often say "We see bitcoin,
we have smart people who come and explain
how blockchain works
but I still really don't understand
what that means for my business. "
I think that makes sense because
if you think about the iPhone, for example:
What really matters, when the new iPhone comes out?
Is it a new chipset or a new way
compressing frequency?
I'm not an engineer and don't know how it works.
What is important for people is what they can do with technology.
Of course, success is now guaranteed.
One day we might see come back to this and say
"Oh, that's not good..." But:
If you ask me, there's no doubt
a large amount of progress has been made.
There's something here.
= = I find it hard to believe that I will look back
in ten or twenty years and say
"None of this ends with happiness."
Because we really saw a new way
transaction value on the Internet.
Chapter 5: Blockchain and Bank
I know how much financial institutions work.
They will not do something that is reckless with technology.
This is the money and livelihood of the people who work with them.
This is a slow increase process.
This system, after implemented,
will run in parallel with the old system for a while
before you switch to a new one.
That's a standard in technology improvement.
I know this will take time.
But there are antagonists, players who are threatened.
It's an AT & T / Verizon / Kodak analogy again.
Their business model is threatened by this
and they will do things to slow down
and simplify transformational networks.
There is a game theory approach about how technology
being launched on the market, for sure.
We made a different round table here at Zug
after the start of our bitcoin experiment.
For example, we invite banks and bankers from Zug
and try to connect them with other people
from "Zug cryptovalley".
They speak, but bankers are not very happy.
They say there are things that are different from the law
and "Not easy for us."
But this is also an attitude problem.
This is the same as our city, for our administration:
the bank must get ready.
I know that they are defensive
but on the other hand there are researches and teams who face these questions.
Maybe they are waiting a little now
but they can't deny it, I'm sure.
I think there will be a lot of interference
lots of revolutions regarding blockchain based technology.
That will encourage not necessarily
banks are worried about other banks that are competitors.
What worries the bank is "bank one" the next generation of banking networks
resident on the phone, it's decentralized, distributed
and it's based on digital tokens, digital assets
it is not issued by the bank or the government.
This creates all the different permutations and opportunities
not only for companies and governments
but also for the community.
We see many examples of banks and consulting companies
and other Big Four audit companies talk about
how they can remove costs from business
than - I don't know - trading in the public market
or whatever it is.
But if you take the example of a public market:
How can you cut costs from markets that don't exist in the future?
What if securities trading occurs peer-to-peer
in a market that does not have traditional intermediaries
exchanges, brokers, agents, escrow agents, clearing houses
and all other parties that we rely on?
That's the cost you spend but
what if the market can function without them?
What is important for leaders of large companies
not just thinking about the cost of
but also to think strategically.
What can this technology allow me to do
I can't do in the past?
I think this will take a long time
for that to weave the way into the system.
It may need a normal technology improvement cycle for that
to fully weave the way into the system.
I have said publicly that I think in twenty years
financial services will only be software
and smart contract technology especially
will automate many things
that institution and people handle today.
Chapter 6: Blockchain and Financial Inclusion
Seventy four percent of the world's population
according to the World Bank
do not have access to basic financial services.
In my home country, in the United States,
which is one of the richest countries in the world,
about fifty percent of the population
do not have access to basic financial services
including bank accounts.
There are a large number of people around the world
who do not experience and become part of the global economy
because they do not have access to the financial system
for various reasons.
I think this technology will be uplifted
many people get out of poverty
but it will also be inclusive technology
which allows more people to be involved in global trade.
I don't like to think that we are creating
so much prosperity for less than one percent.
I like to think of a business that is geared towards goals.
By the way, that's the trick I think
for large companies: to understand
that cost efficiency embraces this new technology
has the potential to expand their accessible market
with reasonable fees.
That alone will create prosperity in various fields.
Something we have to think about.
Soon, when a smartphone can have to
each less than five dollars, right in the corner
almost everyone lives in poverty on earth
will have access to smartphones
and connected to the network.
That is a game that changes itself.
When you have a digital wallet on this phone
and the ability to trade assets
we will answer that question
"What happens when everyone has money?"
Capitalism itself has developed in several regions
by natural exceptions of others from the market.
This really uses the scarcity principle
as the driving base.
So what happens when money is not rare?
We will see people and say:
"What things can't I do
and where can we join?"
More than today, where we say
"How big is your car and how much money
what do you have in your bank account?"
So, I believe the future will be even more
human, or human - not... human
of the last hundred years we have seen.
Chapter 7: Real Revolution
I don't think blockchain is a revolution.
That has been done forever, for forty years,
which is truly forever in computer science.
Both materials from the blockchain - security and distributed systems
has been around since the early seventies.
This is not a revolution.
Revolution, or evolution
jobs will change.
That is something I believe in.
The work will be digitized in a certain sense.
The computer will do a lot of manual work
which we still see in the service domain today.
This is called the "fourth technology revolution" and I think we are at the beginning
like a revolution now.
That's why we don't close our eyes.
Some people say, "There will be many problems
people will lose their jobs," and so on.
I'm sure it will happen
but we better deal with it than deny it.
Offshore work, automation, robots
Do they threaten our work?
This is a real question when your own child
who are ready to continue further education
ask that question.
I conclude that I have a sincere answer:
It's not threatening.
This forces us to think a little differently but if we do it smartly, we really give
Next generation is a great new opportunity to rediscover why they wake up every morning
and why they go to work
and make sure they really make the best use of
the degree they studied
and the things they really want in life.
I want to make the world better.
It's better.
Whatever my size is better, or yours
is what the community might appreciate.
Another thing is this extraordinary opportunity
to create a little prosperity.
Because what your prosperity offers is independence.
We don't have to have people who live in poverty
just fighting for a handful of rice every day.
There are too many in the world
live like that again.
I think certain countries and even companies
begin to understand that.
Surely this movement, this blockchain movement
is the foundation of technology
technology part of that mindset
who is offline too.
The idea has come out.
If you don't realize it here, maybe you realize there or even on the Internet, uncontrolled.
Bitcoin is here, here to stay
and will become bigger and bigger.
As a blockchain, as cryptocurrency
as the possibility of connecting to blockchain and cryptocurrency.
It's out of the box.
And the whole system does not need government.
It exists. Successful.
It's like a computer network that surrounds the world.
You can say "We don't want to be part of it."
So, alright.
It's here. And it won't disappear.
Chapter 8: Blockchain and Us
I feel this is a generation opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors.
To be honest, I haven't seen anything
equally interesting in my investment career.
Let's try to build a new system
which has better trade-offs and features
and reduce losses.
And let's make it work.
Now the pendulum will swing back.
What will be done is frankly
makes trust in the capital market higher.
Blockchain has enormous potential implications
outside financial services.
We might even see full-scale implementation
from some other real world applications
leapfrog financial services.
This discovery, when it appeared in the seventies
really one innovative idea.
This will change society definitely in many domains.
Already changing society in that sense
The internet is a safe place
You can make transactions on the Internet.
Potential to create trust
or even trust without permission
on the internet
that is something we have never had before.
The impact on society, on business, on the government
can be very deep.
Blockchain is fair almost ten years.
I think it has another ten years to run before
we really see what the long-term impact is.
I think this will be a long journey, far more steady
we go down and you will see
some technologies that are inspired by this.
Blockchain technology is not a solution for
all problems under the sun.
When it's ripe we will begin to see its potential benefits
but also the limitations.
You can deny it or you can deal with it.
We always say that we have to deal with it
because these things come
if we want or not.
I have seen old partners
when they see an opportunity, to change
and say, "I don't understand everything
but I understand there is something behind this
so we have to go forward." Really great.
People often say need is the mother of the invention but I want to say the needs are also adoption mothers.
If there are real use cases
that people need technology for
they start using it.
I started with Commodore, we have Atari, Apple
but at some point in time, Windows comes.
Everyone just started using Windows
without asking "What is the code behind it?
What is the code behind moving the mouse?"
We have many possibilities.
Everything will change.
In my opinion, the possibilities are unlimited.
This reminds me of a situation where all of a sudden
we have two or three major discoveries
occurs in one moment.
We live in a window of very interesting opportunities.
I am definitely very excited to fully embrace it.
Even a small step can be a big step for humanity.
I think we are out of the industrial age
and enter the age we still have to name.
Where that will bring us is very difficult to say.
My suspicion means a kind of
revival of community ideas.
This really feels like a new paradigm
to change the world.
We are at a crossroads here.
We have the tools now to create technology which will help all humanity.
The question is: Will we do it?
But we can do it now.
There are so many innovations
blockchain technology has spurred
around the world.
I have no doubt in my mind
that this technology will affect everyone.
I would say in ten to twenty years
there will be no humans
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